{"id":15838,"date":"2023-09-14T10:03:18","date_gmt":"2023-09-14T07:03:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/paec.amiroff.net\/2023\/09\/14\/winter-is-coming-russian-gas-supply-cuts-cause-price-volatility-and-potentially-power-cuts\/"},"modified":"2023-09-15T08:09:00","modified_gmt":"2023-09-15T05:09:00","slug":"winter-is-coming-russian-gas-supply-cuts-cause-price-volatility-and-potentially-power-cuts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/paec.amiroff.net\/en\/2023\/09\/14\/winter-is-coming-russian-gas-supply-cuts-cause-price-volatility-and-potentially-power-cuts\/","title":{"rendered":"Winter is coming: Russian gas supply cuts cause price volatility and potentially power cuts"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"15838\" class=\"elementor elementor-15838 elementor-15833\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-17c028b e-con-full e-flex e-con\" data-id=\"17c028b\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;content_width&quot;:&quot;full&quot;}\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-f8d4ba7 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con\" data-id=\"f8d4ba7\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;content_width&quot;:&quot;boxed&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-e32246e elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"e32246e\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<style>\/*! elementor - v3.15.0 - 31-07-2023 *\/\n.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-stacked .elementor-drop-cap{background-color:#69727d;color:#fff}.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-framed .elementor-drop-cap{color:#69727d;border:3px solid;background-color:transparent}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap{margin-top:8px}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap-letter{width:1em;height:1em}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap{float:left;text-align:center;line-height:1;font-size:50px}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap-letter{display:inline-block}<\/style>\t\t\t\t<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rystadenergy.com\">www.rystadenergy.com<\/a> sayt\u0131na istinad\u0259n<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Avropan\u0131n enerji sektoru qiym\u0259t d\u0259yi\u015fk\u0259nliyi v\u0259 qar\u015f\u0131dan g\u0259l\u0259n q\u0131\u015f \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn enerji balanslar\u0131 il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 qeyri-m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259nlikd\u0259n \u015foka d\u00fc\u015fm\u0259kd\u0259 davam edir. Q\u0259rbi Avropada elektrik enerjisi qiym\u0259tl\u0259ri misilsiz s\u0259viyy\u0259l\u0259r\u0259 qalxd\u0131: g\u00fcnd\u0259lik orta qiym\u0259tl\u0259r Almaniyada bir meqavat-saat (MVt) \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn 600 avrodan (599 dollar) yuxar\u0131, Fransada is\u0259 MVt\/saat \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn 700 avrodan yuxar\u0131, pik saatlarda is\u0259 1500 avroya q\u0259d\u0259r y\u00fcks\u0259lib. \u0130ndi Rusiya \u201c\u015eimal ax\u0131n\u01311\u201d vasit\u0259sil\u0259 b\u00fct\u00fcn qaz ixrac\u0131n\u0131 qeyri-m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n m\u00fcdd\u0259t\u0259 dayand\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn q\u0131\u015f aylar\u0131nda qiym\u0259tl\u0259rin daha da y\u00fcks\u0259lm\u0259si riski var. Bununla bel\u0259, Avropa Komissiyas\u0131 son istifad\u0259\u00e7il\u0259r \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn h\u0259ddind\u0259n art\u0131q qiym\u0259tl\u0259rin t\u0259sirini m\u0259hdudla\u015fd\u0131rmaq \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn h\u0259l\u0259 d\u0259 alternativl\u0259ri ara\u015fd\u0131r\u0131r. Bu dal\u011falanmalar\u0131n s\u0259b\u0259bi qaz bazar\u0131nda g\u00fccl\u00fc volatillikdir, \u00e7\u00fcnki h\u0259ft\u0259 sonu b\u0259zi siqnallar bazardan y\u00fcks\u0259li\u015f\u0259 ke\u00e7ib. Bazar, h\u0259m\u00e7inin bir h\u0259d\u0259fin qaz qiym\u0259tl\u0259rini m\u0259hdudla\u015fd\u0131rmaq, dig\u0259rinin is\u0259 Avropa qaz v\u0259 enerji bazarlar\u0131n\u0131 ay\u0131rmaq kimi g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fcy\u00fc A\u0130 bazar\u0131na t\u0259klif edil\u0259n m\u00fcdaxil\u0259y\u0259 nec\u0259 reaksiya ver\u0259c\u0259yin\u0259 \u0259min deyil. Rystad Energy-nin ara\u015fd\u0131rmas\u0131 g\u00f6st\u0259rir ki, qaza t\u0259l\u0259bat azald\u0131lmal\u0131 olsa, Avropa daha \u00e7ox ehtimal olundu\u011fu kimi, elektrik enerjisinin k\u0259silm\u0259sind\u0259n tutmu\u015f, istehlak\u00e7\u0131lar \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn elektrik enerjisinin k\u0259silm\u0259sin\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r bir s\u0131ra a\u011flas\u0131\u011fmaz se\u00e7iml\u0259rl\u0259 \u00fczl\u0259\u015f\u0259c\u0259k.<\/p>\n<p>Son qiym\u0259t art\u0131mlar\u0131 Rusiya qaz\u0131n\u0131n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 t\u0259dar\u00fck\u00fcn\u00fcn m\u00fck\u0259mm\u0259l f\u0131rt\u0131nas\u0131 il\u0259 \u0259laq\u0259dard\u0131r; n\u00fcv\u0259 k\u0259sintil\u0259ri; v\u0259 quraql\u0131q s\u0259b\u0259bind\u0259n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 hidroenerji istehsal\u0131 v\u0259 k\u00f6m\u00fcr t\u0259chizat\u0131nda fasil\u0259l\u0259r. Bu amill\u0259rd\u0259n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 qaz t\u0259dar\u00fck\u00fc \u0259n b\u00f6y\u00fck t\u0259sir\u0259 malikdir, \u00e7\u00fcnki qaz enerji qar\u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131na ehtiyac olmaqda davam edir v\u0259 t\u0259dar\u00fck\u00fcn marjinal m\u0259nb\u0259yidir v\u0259 buna g\u00f6r\u0259 d\u0259 qiym\u0259tl\u0259r\u0259 \u0259n \u00e7ox z\u0259rb\u0259 vurur. Bununla bel\u0259, tarix\u0259n y\u00fcks\u0259k qaz qiym\u0259tl\u0259ri indiy\u0259d\u0259k enerji sektorundan t\u0259l\u0259bi \u0259h\u0259miyy\u0259tli d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259d\u0259 azaltmay\u0131b \u2013 bu o dem\u0259kdir ki, daha s\u0259rt t\u0259dbirl\u0259r\u0259 ehtiyac ola bil\u0259r. Ke\u00e7\u0259n ay A\u0130-y\u0259 \u00fczv \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259r t\u0259dar\u00fck \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmazl\u0131\u011f\u0131 hal\u0131nda, avqustun 1-d\u0259n g\u0259l\u0259n ilin mart ay\u0131na q\u0259d\u0259r qaz t\u0259l\u0259bat\u0131n\u0131 k\u00f6n\u00fcll\u00fc olaraq 15% azaltma\u011f\u0131 \u00f6hd\u0259sin\u0259 g\u00f6t\u00fcrd\u00fcl\u0259r.<\/p>\n<p>T\u0259l\u0259bin bu 15%-lik azald\u0131lmas\u0131 AB daxilind\u0259 m\u0259cburi olarsa, enerji t\u0259chizat\u0131 v\u0259 t\u0259l\u0259bat\u0131nda balanss\u0131zl\u0131q bu ay tez bir zamanda yarana v\u0259 2023-c\u00fc il\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r daha da pisl\u0259\u015f\u0259 bil\u0259r. T\u0259dric\u0259n azald\u0131lmadan \u0259vv\u0259l enerji k\u0259sirinin yanvar ay\u0131nda maksimum 13,5 TVt\/saata \u00e7ataca\u011f\u0131 t\u0259xmin edilir. D\u00fczg\u00fcn 15% qaza olan t\u0259l\u0259bat\u0131n azald\u0131lmas\u0131 ehtimal\u0131 \u00e7ox da y\u00fcks\u0259k deyil, \u00e7\u00fcnki s\u0259naye kimi dig\u0259r sektorlar t\u0259chizat\u0131n t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259sizliyini t\u0259min etm\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn enerji sektorunu qorumaq \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn daha y\u00fcks\u0259k azalma il\u0259 \u00fczl\u0259\u015f\u0259c\u0259kl\u0259r. \u00c7ox soyuq hava, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u00fcl\u0259k istehsal\u0131 v\u0259 elektrik \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn qaz t\u0259l\u0259bat\u0131n\u0131n 15% azald\u0131lmas\u0131 il\u0259 \u0259n pis ssenari Avropan\u0131n enerji sistemi \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn \u00e7ox \u00e7\u0259tin olacaq v\u0259 enerji normas\u0131n\u0131n m\u0259hdudla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na v\u0259 i\u015f\u0131qlar\u0131n k\u0259silm\u0259sin\u0259 s\u0259b\u0259b ola bil\u0259r.<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-48f81d0 elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"48f81d0\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<style>\/*! elementor - v3.15.0 - 31-07-2023 *\/\n.elementor-widget-image{text-align:center}.elementor-widget-image a{display:inline-block}.elementor-widget-image a img[src$=\".svg\"]{width:48px}.elementor-widget-image img{vertical-align:middle;display:inline-block}<\/style>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1040\" height=\"720\" src=\"http:\/\/paec.amiroff.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/1662387870-europe-monthly-power-generation-mix.webp\" class=\"attachment-full size-full wp-image-15809\" alt=\"\" loading=\"lazy\" srcset=\"http:\/\/paec.amiroff.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/1662387870-europe-monthly-power-generation-mix.webp 1040w, http:\/\/paec.amiroff.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/1662387870-europe-monthly-power-generation-mix-300x208.webp 300w, http:\/\/paec.amiroff.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/1662387870-europe-monthly-power-generation-mix-1024x709.webp 1024w, http:\/\/paec.amiroff.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/1662387870-europe-monthly-power-generation-mix-768x532.webp 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1040px) 100vw, 1040px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-06edc2a elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"06edc2a\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><strong>G\u00fcc qar\u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda qaza ehtiyac qalmaqdad\u0131r<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Avropan\u0131n kommunal xidm\u0259tl\u0259ri, b\u00f6y\u00fck s\u0259yl\u0259r\u0259 baxmayaraq, qazdan as\u0131l\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 azaltmaq \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn m\u00fcbariz\u0259 apar\u0131r &#8211; \u0259slind\u0259, qaz enerjisi istehsal\u0131 yuxar\u0131da qeyd olunan probleml\u0259r n\u0259tic\u0259sind\u0259 y\u00fcks\u0259lmi\u015fdir. A\u0130-d\u0259 n\u00fcv\u0259 v\u0259 su elektrik enerjisi istehsal\u0131 illik m\u00fcqayis\u0259d\u0259 m\u00fcvafiq olaraq 14% v\u0259 25% azalaraq 110 terawatt-saat (TWh) elektrik enerjisini \u015f\u0259b\u0259k\u0259d\u0259n silib. Bu, daha y\u00fcks\u0259k k\u00fcl\u0259k, k\u00f6m\u00fcr, g\u00fcn\u0259\u015f v\u0259 qaz istehsal\u0131 il\u0259 kompensasiya edilmi\u015fdir. \u00dcmumilikd\u0259, qaz enerjisi istehsal\u0131 illik m\u00fcqayis\u0259d\u0259 6% artaraq iyulda 39,1 TVt\/saata \u00e7at\u0131b. M\u00f6vs\u00fcmi elektrik enerjisin\u0259 t\u0259l\u0259bat artd\u0131qca ilin sonuna do\u011fru i\u015fl\u0259r daha da \u00e7\u0259tinl\u0259\u015f\u0259c\u0259k \u2013 dekabrda elektrik istehlak\u0131 iyul ay\u0131na nisb\u0259t\u0259n normal olaraq 25% y\u00fcks\u0259kdir, y\u0259ni Avropa istehlak\u0131 ayda 280 TWh-dan \u00e7ox ola bil\u0259r.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Qar\u015f\u0131dan g\u0259l\u0259n q\u0131\u015f Avropan\u0131n onillikl\u0259r \u0259rzind\u0259 g\u00f6rd\u00fcy\u00fc \u0259n \u00e7\u0259tin q\u0131\u015f olaca\u011f\u0131 \u015f\u00fcbh\u0259sizdir &#8211; v\u0259 istehlak\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n v\u0259 ya h\u00f6kum\u0259tl\u0259rin bunun qiym\u0259tini \u00f6d\u0259y\u0259c\u0259yi g\u00f6zl\u0259nilir. \u018fg\u0259r qaza olan t\u0259l\u0259bat\u0131n azald\u0131lmas\u0131 laz\u0131md\u0131rsa, biz elektrik t\u0259chizat\u0131 il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 probleml\u0259rin bu ay ortaya \u00e7\u0131xaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 v\u0259 2023-c\u00fc il\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r daha da pisl\u0259\u015f\u0259c\u0259yini g\u00f6zl\u0259yirik. .&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Rystad Energy-nin s\u0259lahiyy\u0259t r\u0259hb\u0259ri Karlos Torres Diaz deyir<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-51bcc4e elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"51bcc4e\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1040\" height=\"720\" src=\"http:\/\/paec.amiroff.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/1662387608-germany-baseload-power-prices-and-fossil-fueled-generation-cost.webp\" class=\"attachment-full size-full wp-image-15805\" alt=\"\" loading=\"lazy\" srcset=\"http:\/\/paec.amiroff.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/1662387608-germany-baseload-power-prices-and-fossil-fueled-generation-cost.webp 1040w, http:\/\/paec.amiroff.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/1662387608-germany-baseload-power-prices-and-fossil-fueled-generation-cost-300x208.webp 300w, http:\/\/paec.amiroff.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/1662387608-germany-baseload-power-prices-and-fossil-fueled-generation-cost-1024x709.webp 1024w, http:\/\/paec.amiroff.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/1662387608-germany-baseload-power-prices-and-fossil-fueled-generation-cost-768x532.webp 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1040px) 100vw, 1040px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-feca44f elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"feca44f\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><strong>Rusiya qaz\u0131n\u0131n t\u0259dar\u00fck\u00fc 89% azal\u0131b v\u0259 daha da azala bil\u0259r<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u00d6t\u0259n ilin birinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda Rusiya \u0259sas ixrac mar\u015frutlar\u0131 il\u0259 Q\u0259rbi Avropaya sutkada 350 milyon kubmetr\u0259 yax\u0131n (MMcmd) t\u0259bii qaz ixrac edib. Son g\u00fcnl\u0259rd\u0259 ax\u0131nlar illik m\u00fcqayis\u0259d\u0259 89% azalaraq 40 MMcmd-d\u0259n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcb. Bu azalman\u0131n b\u00f6y\u00fck hiss\u0259si texniki probleml\u0259rl\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 \u015eimal ax\u0131n\u0131 1-d\u0259n ke\u00e7\u0259n ax\u0131n\u0131n dayand\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n n\u0259tic\u0259sidir, baxmayaraq ki, Ukraynadak\u0131 m\u00fcharib\u0259 il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 siyasi m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259l\u0259rin d\u0259 rol oynad\u0131\u011f\u0131na inan\u0131l\u0131r. Pol\u015fa v\u0259 Ukraynadan da ax\u0131nlar azal\u0131b. Rusiyan\u0131n \u201cQazprom\u201d \u015firk\u0259ti avqustun 31-d\u0259n \u201c\u015eimal ax\u0131n\u0131 1\u201d vasit\u0259sil\u0259 b\u00fct\u00fcn ixrac\u0131 dayand\u0131r\u0131b. Qalan kompressorda \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcnl\u00fck t\u0259mird\u0259n sonra ax\u0131nlar\u0131n b\u0259rpa olunaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6zl\u0259nils\u0259 d\u0259, Rusiya indi sanksiyalar aradan qald\u0131r\u0131lmayana q\u0259d\u0259r ax\u0131nlar\u0131n tam \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 b\u0259rpa olunmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 b\u0259yan edib. Bu son add\u0131m Avropan\u0131n b\u00fct\u00fcn q\u0131\u015f boyu \u201c\u015eimal ax\u0131n\u0131 1\u201d vasit\u0259sil\u0259 \u0259lav\u0259 qaz ax\u0131n\u0131 \u0259ld\u0259 etm\u0259m\u0259si riskini \u0259h\u0259miyy\u0259tli d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259d\u0259 art\u0131r\u0131b.<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-d2682a2 elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"d2682a2\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1040\" height=\"720\" src=\"http:\/\/paec.amiroff.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/1662387725-change-in-power-mix-in-europe.webp\" class=\"attachment-full size-full wp-image-15807\" alt=\"\" loading=\"lazy\" srcset=\"http:\/\/paec.amiroff.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/1662387725-change-in-power-mix-in-europe.webp 1040w, http:\/\/paec.amiroff.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/1662387725-change-in-power-mix-in-europe-300x208.webp 300w, http:\/\/paec.amiroff.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/1662387725-change-in-power-mix-in-europe-1024x709.webp 1024w, http:\/\/paec.amiroff.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/1662387725-change-in-power-mix-in-europe-768x532.webp 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1040px) 100vw, 1040px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-a1df837 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"a1df837\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><strong>Rusiya qaz\u0131n\u0131 \u0259v\u0259z ed\u0259c\u0259k alternativ enerji m\u0259nb\u0259l\u0259ri<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>A\u0130-nin qazdan istifad\u0259ni azaltmaq s\u0259yl\u0259rinin be\u015fillik orta g\u00f6st\u0259rici il\u0259 m\u00fcqayis\u0259d\u0259 A\u0130-nin \u00fcmumi qaza t\u0259l\u0259bat\u0131n 15% azald\u0131lmas\u0131 il\u0259 n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259ndiyi ssenarid\u0259, ayda t\u0259xmin\u0259n 5,5 TVt\/saata uy\u011fun g\u0259l\u0259n itirilmi\u015f t\u0259dar\u00fck azald\u0131lmal\u0131d\u0131r. ba\u015fqa m\u0259nb\u0259l\u0259rl\u0259 \u0259v\u0259z edilm\u0259si, t\u0259l\u0259bin azalmas\u0131 v\u0259 ya bloka enerji idxal\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131. Bu il hidroenergetika v\u0259 n\u00fcv\u0259 enerjisind\u0259n elektrik istehsal\u0131 k\u0259skin azal\u0131b, k\u00f6m\u00fcr, qaz, g\u00fcn\u0259\u015f v\u0259 k\u00fcl\u0259k is\u0259 art\u0131b. Qaz enerjisi istehsal\u0131nda 15% azalman\u0131n qar\u015f\u0131dak\u0131 aylar \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn real olub-olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 t\u0259xmin etm\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn 2022-ci il\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r v\u0259 son be\u015f ild\u0259ki tendensiyalar\u0131 n\u0259z\u0259rd\u0259n ke\u00e7irm\u0259liyik. Qeyd edildiyi kimi, bu il blokda k\u00f6m\u00fcr enerjisi istehsal\u0131 illik m\u00fcqayis\u0259d\u0259 12% art\u0131b v\u0259 dekabr v\u0259 yanvar aylar\u0131nda laz\u0131m g\u0259l\u0259rs\u0259, \u0259lav\u0259 istifad\u0259 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn bir yer var. Y\u00fck faktorlar\u0131 bu il indiy\u0259d\u0259k normadan y\u00fcks\u0259k olub, lakin h\u0259l\u0259 d\u0259 b\u00fct\u00f6vl\u00fckd\u0259 donanma \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn tarixi y\u00fcks\u0259klikl\u0259r\u0259 (t\u0259xmin\u0259n 70%) y\u00fcks\u0259l\u0259 bil\u0259r.<\/p>\n<p>Dig\u0259r t\u0259r\u0259fd\u0259n, hidroenergetika istehsal\u0131 bu il indiy\u0259d\u0259k 25% azal\u0131b. Avropada suyun s\u0259viyy\u0259si ilin ikinci v\u0259 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc r\u00fcbl\u0259ri aras\u0131nda normal olaraq maksimum h\u0259dd\u0259 \u00e7at\u0131r, bu o dem\u0259kdir ki, regionda ya\u011f\u0131nt\u0131n\u0131n az olmas\u0131 n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 al\u0131nmaqla, su anbarlar\u0131n\u0131n q\u0131\u015fdan \u0259vv\u0259l rekord h\u0259dd\u0259 \u00e7atmas\u0131 ehtimal\u0131 azd\u0131r. Buna g\u00f6r\u0259 d\u0259 n\u00f6vb\u0259ti alt\u0131 ay \u0259rzind\u0259 hidroenergetika istehsal\u0131n\u0131n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 s\u0259viyy\u0259d\u0259 qalaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6zl\u0259nilir.<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-fa8b3a2 elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"fa8b3a2\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1040\" height=\"720\" src=\"http:\/\/paec.amiroff.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/1662387942-eu-27-supply-and-demand-balance-15-gas-reduction-scenario.webp\" class=\"attachment-full size-full wp-image-15811\" alt=\"\" loading=\"lazy\" srcset=\"http:\/\/paec.amiroff.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/1662387942-eu-27-supply-and-demand-balance-15-gas-reduction-scenario.webp 1040w, http:\/\/paec.amiroff.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/1662387942-eu-27-supply-and-demand-balance-15-gas-reduction-scenario-300x208.webp 300w, http:\/\/paec.amiroff.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/1662387942-eu-27-supply-and-demand-balance-15-gas-reduction-scenario-1024x709.webp 1024w, http:\/\/paec.amiroff.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/1662387942-eu-27-supply-and-demand-balance-15-gas-reduction-scenario-768x532.webp 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1040px) 100vw, 1040px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-ab405df elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"ab405df\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\tBu il A\u0130-d\u0259 n\u00fcv\u0259 istehsal\u0131 14% azal\u0131b v\u0259 perspektivl\u0259r qaranl\u0131qd\u0131r. Fransan\u0131n EDF haz\u0131rda q\u0131\u015f \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn t\u0259mird\u0259 olan n\u00fcv\u0259 reaktorlar\u0131n\u0131 i\u015f\u0259 salma\u011fa \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131r. Onlar\u0131n yenid\u0259n ba\u015flama tarixl\u0259ri h\u0259l\u0259 d\u0259 qeyri-m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259ndir, buna g\u00f6r\u0259 d\u0259 cari a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 n\u0259sil s\u0259viyy\u0259l\u0259ri g\u00f6zl\u0259nil\u0259 bil\u0259r.\n\nG\u00fcn\u0259\u015f v\u0259 k\u00fcl\u0259k istehsal\u0131 bu il \u0259h\u0259miyy\u0259tli d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259d\u0259 art\u0131b &#8211; m\u00fcvafiq olaraq 25% v\u0259 14% &#8211; x\u00fcsusil\u0259 b\u00f6y\u00fck g\u00fcc \u0259lav\u0259l\u0259ri il\u0259 art\u0131r\u0131l\u0131b. Qalan aylar \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn n\u0259z\u0259rd\u0259 tutulan art\u0131m 2022-ci ild\u0259 g\u00fcn\u0259\u015f enerjisi \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn 25 giqavat (GW) v\u0259 k\u00fcl\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn 15 GVt ola bil\u0259c\u0259k g\u00fcc \u0259lav\u0259l\u0259rin\u0259 uy\u011fundur &#8211; illik m\u00fcqayis\u0259d\u0259 m\u00fcvafiq olaraq 16% v\u0259 8% art\u0131m.\n\nK\u00f6m\u00fcr, g\u00fcn\u0259\u015f v\u0259 k\u00fcl\u0259k enerjisind\u0259n y\u00fcks\u0259k n\u0259sil 2023-c\u00fc ilin sentyabr-mart d\u00f6vr\u00fcnd\u0259 \u0259lav\u0259 34 TVt\/saat \u0259lav\u0259 etm\u0259kl\u0259 qaz t\u0259dar\u00fck\u00fcn\u00fcn azalmas\u0131n\u0131n qism\u0259n \u00f6d\u0259nilm\u0259sin\u0259 k\u00f6m\u0259k ed\u0259 bil\u0259r. Lakin bu, qaz, n\u00fcv\u0259 v\u0259 su istehsal\u0131, y\u0259ni \u0259lav\u0259 t\u0259dbirl\u0259r\u0259 ehtiyac olacaq. Avropan\u0131n elektrik enerjisin\u0259 t\u0259l\u0259bi bu il indiy\u0259d\u0259k 2,2% azal\u0131b, bunun \u0259sas s\u0259b\u0259bi rekord y\u00fcks\u0259k qiym\u0259tl\u0259rin x\u00fcsusil\u0259 s\u0259naye sektorundan t\u0259l\u0259bi azaltmas\u0131d\u0131r. Davam ed\u0259n y\u00fcks\u0259k qiym\u0259tl\u0259r, ehtimal ki, t\u0259l\u0259bi indiki a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 s\u0259viyy\u0259d\u0259 saxlayacaq v\u0259 ya onu daha da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 salacaq. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczd\u0259ki aylar \u0259rzind\u0259 illik analoji 3% azalma m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr, \u00e7\u00fcnki y\u00fcks\u0259k qiym\u0259tl\u0259r s\u0259naye v\u0259 m\u0259i\u015f\u0259t istehlak\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131na t\u0259sir g\u00f6st\u0259rmir, h\u0259m d\u0259 h\u00f6kum\u0259tl\u0259r t\u0259r\u0259find\u0259n h\u0259yata ke\u00e7iril\u0259n elektrik enerjisin\u0259 q\u0259na\u0259t t\u0259dbirl\u0259ri n\u0259tic\u0259sind\u0259.\n\nBiz elektrik enerjisi \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn qaz t\u0259l\u0259binin 15% azalmas\u0131, k\u00f6m\u00fcr, g\u00fcn\u0259\u015f v\u0259 k\u00fcl\u0259kd\u0259n \u0259lav\u0259 t\u0259dar\u00fck v\u0259 \u00fcmumi elektrik enerjisin\u0259 t\u0259l\u0259bat\u0131n azald\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 n\u0259z\u0259rd\u0259 tutaraq enerji t\u0259chizat\u0131 v\u0259 t\u0259l\u0259bi \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn tam ssenari yaratm\u0131\u015f\u0131q (yuxar\u0131dak\u0131 \u015f\u0259kl\u0259 bax). Bu onu g\u00f6st\u0259rir ki, t\u0259l\u0259b v\u0259 t\u0259klifd\u0259 balanss\u0131zl\u0131q art\u0131q bu ay yarana bil\u0259r v\u0259 2023-c\u00fc il\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r daha da pisl\u0259\u015f\u0259 bil\u0259r. K\u0259sir t\u0259dric\u0259n enm\u0259d\u0259n \u0259vv\u0259l yanvar ay\u0131nda maksimum 13,5 TWh-\u0259 \u00e7at\u0131r.\n\nBu ssenari A\u0130-d\u0259 2022-ci ilin sentyabr\u0131ndan 2023-c\u00fc ilin mart\u0131na q\u0259d\u0259r olan tam d\u00f6vr \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn 51 TVt\/saat enerji k\u0259sirini g\u00f6st\u0259rir ki, bu da Norve\u00e7, B\u00f6y\u00fck Britaniya v\u0259 \u0130sve\u00e7r\u0259 v\u0259 ya dig\u0259r qon\u015fu \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rd\u0259n \u0259lav\u0259 idxal hesab\u0131na \u00f6d\u0259nilm\u0259lidir. K\u0259siri \u00fcmumi t\u0259l\u0259bi azaltmaqla da azaltmaq olar. \u018fg\u0259r bel\u0259dirs\u0259, t\u0259l\u0259b ilin \u0259vv\u0259lki d\u00f6vrl\u0259 m\u00fcqayis\u0259d\u0259 5% azalmal\u0131d\u0131r.\n\nT\u0259hlill\u0259rimiz g\u00f6st\u0259rir ki, qaz t\u0259dar\u00fck\u00fcn\u00fcn \u0259h\u0259miyy\u0259tli d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259d\u0259 azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ssenarid\u0259 Avropada enerji istehsal\u0131 balans\u0131 ciddi probleml\u0259 \u00fczl\u0259\u015fir, \u00e7\u00fcnki dig\u0259r m\u0259nb\u0259l\u0259rd\u0259n \u0259h\u0259miyy\u0259tli d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259d\u0259 art\u0131m \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn \u00e7ox \u00e7eviklik yoxdur. \u0130st\u0259nil\u0259n ba\u015fqa alternativ enerji t\u0259l\u0259bat\u0131nda b\u00f6y\u00fck azalma t\u0259l\u0259b ed\u0259c\u0259k. Qeyd edildiyi kimi, t\u0259l\u0259b bu il indiy\u0259d\u0259k t\u0259xmin\u0259n 2% azal\u0131b &#8211; lakin bunu 5% azalmaya geni\u015fl\u0259ndirm\u0259k uzan\u0131r. Bundan \u0259lav\u0259, qaz Avropada \u0259n \u00e7evik t\u0259chizat m\u0259nb\u0259yidir v\u0259 m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259n, g\u00fcn\u0259\u015f v\u0259 k\u00fcl\u0259k enerjisi istehsal\u0131nda b\u00f6y\u00fck d\u0259yi\u015fiklikl\u0259rin oldu\u011fu d\u00f6vrl\u0259rd\u0259 t\u0259l\u0259b v\u0259 t\u0259klifi balansla\u015fd\u0131rma\u011fa k\u00f6m\u0259k edir. Bu \u00e7evikliyi n\u00fcv\u0259 v\u0259 ya k\u00f6m\u00fcr kimi dig\u0259r m\u0259nb\u0259l\u0259rd\u0259n \u0259ld\u0259 etm\u0259k \u00e7\u0259tin olard\u0131.\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>www.rystadenergy.com sayt\u0131na istinad\u0259n Avropan\u0131n enerji sektoru qiym\u0259t d\u0259yi\u015fk\u0259nliyi v\u0259 qar\u015f\u0131dan g\u0259l\u0259n q\u0131\u015f \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn enerji balanslar\u0131 il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 qeyri-m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259nlikd\u0259n \u015foka d\u00fc\u015fm\u0259kd\u0259 davam edir. Q\u0259rbi Avropada elektrik enerjisi qiym\u0259tl\u0259ri misilsiz s\u0259viyy\u0259l\u0259r\u0259 qalxd\u0131: g\u00fcnd\u0259lik orta qiym\u0259tl\u0259r Almaniyada bir meqavat-saat (MVt) \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn 600 avrodan&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":15794,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false},"categories":[55,1],"tags":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v20.8 (Yoast SEO v20.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Winter is coming: Russian gas supply cuts cause price volatility and potentially power cuts - PAEC<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"http:\/\/paec.amiroff.net\/en\/2023\/09\/14\/winter-is-coming-russian-gas-supply-cuts-cause-price-volatility-and-potentially-power-cuts\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Winter is coming: Russian gas supply cuts cause price volatility and potentially power cuts\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"www.rystadenergy.com sayt\u0131na istinad\u0259n Avropan\u0131n enerji sektoru qiym\u0259t d\u0259yi\u015fk\u0259nliyi v\u0259 qar\u015f\u0131dan g\u0259l\u0259n q\u0131\u015f \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn enerji balanslar\u0131 il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 qeyri-m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259nlikd\u0259n \u015foka d\u00fc\u015fm\u0259kd\u0259 davam edir. 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